If you consult only one thing on Omicron BA.4/BA.5 and the bivalent vaccines...

may I suggest you could do worse than this?

Dr. Paul Offit is an expert’s expert. He is trained and works in virology and vaccines and co-invented a rotovirus vaccine that saves hundreds of children’s lives around the globe on a daily basis (rotovirus kills half as many kids annually as malaria, i.e., a truly devastating effect on our most vulnerable populations).

He does a fabulous job here speaking objectively with evidence and knowledge against both ForeverMaskers and NeverVaxxers. I greatly admire Offit for having the courage to say true things no matter who might be made uncomfortable by them. In my paltry little way, I try to do the same thing, and I have a collection of friends who have been made uncomfortable by one or another thing I’ve written to prove it!

Bottom line if you don’t have a whole hour to spare: If you got the two shot base dose of the original vaccine, you are still well-protected against serious illness. Unless you are “elderly elderly” or have very serious health deficits such as chronic lung disease, heart disease, etc., you will very likely not benefit much from adding on top of that the bivalent boosters that are currently being pushed by the CDC and many other institutions (including the one in which I’m employed).

He gives attention to the important fact that the misspeaking of medical authorities about the waning of vaccine protection over time (giving infections that vaccinated people got months after their shots the unfortunate term “breakthrough infections,” though even those with basic knowledge of this topic understand that very typically vaccines wane in effectiveness over time) helped add fuel to the populist anti-vaccine fire. It doesn’t excuse bad decision-making on the ground—and it certainly is not a vindication for the people who have been saying untrue and often outlandishly bizarre things about the vaccines online since they emerged. But when expert communities make errors like this, it can be expected to have negative effects on the public.

He also describes quite well why the bivalent vaccines are unlikely to work as some of the official claims impute. He walks through how the manufacturers probably went wrong in making the new vaccines half-directed to Omicron and half to the original virus strain, which likely contributes to weakening the effect on the versions of the virus that are relevant to us now.

And he discusses how incredibly difficult it is to develop effective vaccines and then implement them in the most advantageous way. This is the kind of knowledge that too many people who want to talk about this topic quite clearly lack. The discussion around 37 minutes about how almost unfathomably hard it is to predict what influenza mutations will look like in a given year and to tailor yearly vax to that, and yet as hard as it is, that we manage most of the time to prevent a vast amount of serious illness with the flu vaccine is very helpful to give perspective.

The public discussion of COVID includes lots of people talking glibly about how the vaccines “failed.” This is demonstrably false. They did not fail. On the contrary, the original vaccines were an astounding achievement and by reasonable estimates they saved many millions of lives globally in just the first year of their use.

Yet, empirical reality is complicated, and the above can be true at the same time as it’s true, as Offit argues, that the new bivalent vaccines are likely to have a much, much less impressive effect on the COVID health burden.

If you are trying to cut through all the spin and outright propaganda from the various sides on this issue to figure out what course of action to take for you and family, I encourage you to give a listen to Dr. Offit.